Category: Macro

Quantifying Politics

We all know that politics impacts markets. However, it can be tricky to understand how to quantify political risk and use it as an input in the investing process. Here we take an updated look at the returns from applying Thorfinn’s political indices to trade a basket of macro assets. During our sample period from…

Forecasting or nowcasting?

We all want to forecast what’s around the corner? However, perhaps a more pertinent question, which we might seek to ask is the following, is this actually a corner? In a nutshell, that is the difference between forecasting and nowcasting. Forecasting is all very well and good, but it isn’t particularly easy. Nowcasting is more…

Crypto and quant trading

There’s probably something innately human about wanting to be right about a prediction. If I get a burger, I especially hope that it’ll be a fantastic burger. Sometimes it is, and I feel a sense of vindication. Other times, maybe not. The downside isn’t exactly a big deal, just a lousy meal, and hopefully, they’ll…

Mind the gap risk

Financial markets are not generally open continually. Cryptocurrency markets by contrast, are open all the time. If you want to trade Bitcoin over the weekend you can. There are also various weekend markets on some smaller platforms, where you can speculate on assets like Dow Jones. If a market is closed and a big market…