Category: General

General posts about markets

How to judge a forecast

Let’s say I go to a burger joint, and want to forecast how good the burger will be. First, I need to use a bunch of input data. This can include observations derived from questions, such as how many people are in the restaurant? How much is the burger? What are the ingredients of the…

Trend following and VCs

There’s a trend with burgers. Go into some burger joints, and they’ll be offering a “wagyu” burger. This is generally code for charging you more for a burger. Wagyu steak tends to be prohibitively expensive. The difficulty with a burger, is that the meat gets minced, so even if what you are getting served really…

Berkshire Hathaway Meeting in Omaha

The Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting returned in person for the second time after COVID this weekend in Omaha. As noted by Warren Buffett, there was somewhat of a clash in the calendar with the Coronation over the Atlantic, although he did quip that they had their own King Charles here at the meeting, in the…