We all know that politics impacts markets. However, it can be tricky to understand how to quantify political risk and use it as an input in the investing process. Here we take an updated look at the returns from applying Thorfinn’s political indices to trade a basket of macro assets. During our sample period from…
Category: Macro
Data, General, Macro
Forecasting or nowcasting?
by Saeed Amen •
We all want to forecast what’s around the corner? However, perhaps a more pertinent question, which we might seek to ask is the following, is this actually a corner? In a nutshell, that is the difference between forecasting and nowcasting. Forecasting is all very well and good, but it isn’t particularly easy. Nowcasting is more…
Data, General, Macro
Differences between economic and price data
by Saeed Amen •
Price data is usually the first port of call for quants to use in trading strategies. There are many price based strategies which remain popular such as trend following. In general it tends to be easier to start with price data when building models. For one our signal and asset returns can be derived from…
Data, General, Macro
Crypto and quant trading
by Saeed Amen •
There’s probably something innately human about wanting to be right about a prediction. If I get a burger, I especially hope that it’ll be a fantastic burger. Sometimes it is, and I feel a sense of vindication. Other times, maybe not. The downside isn’t exactly a big deal, just a lousy meal, and hopefully, they’ll…
Data, Foreign Exchange, General, Macro
Markets and their seasons
by Saeed Amen •
Over the past few weeks, spring has arrived, in what has been a very challenging period across many countries in the world. Looking outside, it’s a time of new beginnings, thankfully making a change from the past few months of winter. Markets have their seasons too. Some might actually mirror the actual seasons outside. …
General, Macro
Unwinding isn’t always relaxed
by Saeed Amen •
Does there always have to be a reason? When it comes to financial markets, even if there isn’t a reason, folks will try and explain one. Ah, that move, that was Middle East buying. Oh no, perhaps, it was China. However, often there can be a good reason to explain a move, and slowly it…
Data, Foreign Exchange, General, Macro
Mind the gap risk
by Saeed Amen •
Financial markets are not generally open continually. Cryptocurrency markets by contrast, are open all the time. If you want to trade Bitcoin over the weekend you can. There are also various weekend markets on some smaller platforms, where you can speculate on assets like Dow Jones. If a market is closed and a big market…
Foreign Exchange, General, Macro
An option room with a view
by Saeed Amen •
Let’s say I want a burger. The easiest way to have a burger in a restaurant is to order one, right? Alternatively, we could order the whole menu, which happens to have a burger in it. We’ll end up eating a lot more, but I suppose we’ll still get to the same objective. In…
Foreign Exchange, General, Macro, Python
Getting started in FX
by Saeed Amen •
It always difficult to know where to start, when it comes to areas in finance. There is so much to read, so what to start with? Furthermore, the more you read and the more years that pass, it becomes even more obvious that there is less you know. I remember back in 2005, when I…
Data, Foreign Exchange, General, Macro, Python
Hundreds of quant papers from #QuantLinkADay in 2020
by Saeed Amen •
This has been a challenging year by pretty much any other standard. I remember when I was kid, and heard the year 2020, it sounded very exciting. It’d be like Back to the Future, with hoverboards and flying cars. Instead, 2020 has been all about the coronavirus. Whilst I’ve been lucky enough to be safe…