Category: Macro

Correlations and the market

When I have a burger I feel better. I feel that there is some causation here, in particular because of I’ve got lots of statistical data to justify this! However, in practice, if we look away from burgers and at finance, it’s a bit more difficult to answer the conundrum of causation versus correlation. If…

Fooled by randomness?

Nassim Talib’s book entitled Fooled by Randomness, is a great read. The central premise is the idea that people mistake randomness for something meaningful. We always want to find an explanation or a cause for something, even if there isn’t one. Markets are inherently noisy. It isn’t always possible to understand “why” a market moved…

Isn’t passive, a bit active?

Over the past few years, passive strategies have increased significantly in popularity compared to active strategies. This is perhaps not surprising given that stocks have been pretty buoyant and as a result passive strategies which track a broad based equity indices have performed relatively well. The argument is that passive strategies have very low fees…

Why has that price moved?

Why? It’s the most insidious of words in the English language. It is so often easy to ask why, but somewhat more difficult to answer. I kind of like burgers, but ask me why, and perhaps the only way I could answer would be with something mundane like “they taste good”, and elaborate on that…